Al along the watchtower

Where have all negotiations gone?

"There are many here among us

Who feel that life is but a joke

But you and I, we've been through that

And this is not our fate

So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late"

Bob Dylan was just passing through Europe, so it seemed appropriate to start with some lyrics from All Along the Watchtower.

These days, anyone advocating de-escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine is quickly portrayed as a right-wing (!) Putin friend. When Elon Musk and Donald Trump suggested last week that it might not be a bad idea after all to see if we could avoid a nuclear war through negotiations, they were rebuffed. In Kiev, the giant posters of Elon Musk, which Ukrainians had first put up to thank him for his internet satellite connections, were taken down. He can now surely forget that square with his name and a statue in Kiev. Nothing should put spokes in the wheels of the propaganda war, on both sides, of course. That is why it is a pity that the Russian propaganda channel RT can no longer be watched in Europe: it is always enlightening to compare one propaganda with another.

So anyone now advocating negotiations and de-escalation is suspect. Indeed; according to specialists in Washington, the demand for de-escalation just leads to escalation. For the war apologists, the reason for this is simple: "whoever negotiates now shows that he is scared of nuclear war" according to Washington's influential Yale professor Timothy Snyder. To me, it just seems perfectly sensible to be terrified of a nuclear holocaust, potentially wiping out the entire human race, but that attitude is already being described as cowardly. I must be very old-fashioned. And besides, not a Yale professor. Where it used to be called nuclear balance that prevents nuclear war, the reasoning is now being reversed by the hawks: we must not be deterred by nuclear blackmail. What used to be called balance is now called blackmail. Where during the Cuba crisis Khrushchev and Kennedy came to an agreement and spared the world a nuclear war, today they would be labelled cowardly and weak.

These are worrying evolutions, especially since this Ukraine war was waged here in our European backyard and -for example- not in Mexico on the US border or in Cuba. Surely such a geographical difference makes a big difference in thinking.

According to the usually well-informed publication Defense News, a new US law is now coming -backed by Democrats and Republicans- to free up even more money for multi-year contracts with arms manufacturers to help Ukraine and replenish US stockpiles. Excellent news for the US war industry, which is already operating at full capacity, with record profits for Lockheed Martin, among others, which produces the famous HIMARS missile system.

The Pentagon would also be allowed to partner with NATO to buy weapons en masse for its members, and for contracts related to Ukraine, the legislation would relax some key legal restrictions on Pentagon purchases until fiscal year 2024 - a sign that lawmakers see the war dragging on.

"The intent of the legislation is to encourage the Pentagon and industry to be more aggressive by removing bureaucratic obstacles, not only in view of Russia but also in view of a possible confrontation with China over Taiwan" , a senior congressional aide told Defense News. In light of this, the Senate also wants to release $10 billion for military aid to Taiwan. So here we see identically the same mechanism that also played out with Covid and made Big Pharma even richer than they already were: a problem is created, the solution is provided and the urgency is invoked to pass legislation quickly.

Preparations for conflict with China are also being made at another level: last week, the Biden administration banned the export of high-tech equipment to China, leading, for instance, Dutch semiconductor manufacturer ASML to order its employees to stop working for Chinese customers. Producers such as Apple, Samsung, Google, Amazon and Microsoft saw the scare for some time and have since moved their production to other Asian countries such as Vietnam or India.

It looks very much like the US is preparing an offensive on several fronts (not to mention Iraq). Europe is standing by, watching it and shivering for a cold war winter. It is high time we named that elephant in the room, before it is too late.

"And this is not our fate

So let us not talk falsely now,

the hour is getting late"